Реферат: The manager as a teacher: selected aspects of stimulation of scientific thinking

RUSSIAN ACADEMY OFGOVERNMENT

SERVICE AT THE PRESIDENT OFRUSSIAN

FEDERATION

***

INSTITUTE OF INCREASE OF QUALIFICATION

OF GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES

ATTESTATION WORK

THE MANAGER AS A TEACHER:

SELECTED ASPECTS

OF STIMULATION OFSCIENTIFIC THINKING

Author:

Vladislav I.Kaganovskiy,

student of the Group # 02.313

of professional re-training

in sphere

«HR management»

MOSCOW

2006

“Wars

are won by schoolteacher”

Ottovon Bismark

Selected aspects of stimulation

of scientific thinking

Asis generally known, science and education are one of

strategicresources of the state, one of fundamental forms of culture of civilization, aswell as competitive advantage of every individual. Global discoveries of modernlife occur both deep in and at the junction of various sciences, and at that,often and often the more unusual the combination of sciences is, the widerrange of scientific prospects is promised by non-standard conspectus of theircombination, for example, biology and electronics, philology and mathematics, etc.Discoveries in one area stimulate development in other spheres of science aswell. Scientific development of a society isa programmable and predictable phenomenon, and this issue is specifically dealtby the futurology science. Modern techniques of pedagogy, psychology, medicine and other sciences do not only enable orientationand informational “pumping” of human brain, but also the formation of anindividual’s character optimally suitable for the role of scientist. Unlike a computer,any human being has intuition — the element of thinking so far in no wayreplaceable (although some developments in this sphere are coming into being). Narrowspecialization of scientists tapers the scope of their activity and isexplained by an immense volume of information required for modern scientist.This problem is being solved (partially though) through a variety of actions –intellectualization of computers, “simplification” of information (its reductionto short, but data intensive/high-capacity formulas and formulations),application of psycho-technologies. Psycho-technologies (mnemonics, educationalgames, hypnopaedia, (auto-) hypnosis, propaganda and advertising methods andtechniques, including technotronic and pharmacological /nootropic preparations/,etc.) make it possible to solve the following problem. A “black box” conceptapplied in computer science designates a system into which the chaoticinformation is entered, and in a little while a version, hypothesis or theoryis produced. A human being represents (with some reservations though) such asystem. Information processing occurs consciously and subconsciously based oncertain rules (program). The more information processing rules we enter, the fewernumber of degrees of freedom remains in the system. Hence, it is desirable toenter the very basic axioms. Differences in programs (even mere default — butwithout lack of key information) form differences in opinions and argumentation.The longer the period of program operation is (including based on internal biologicalclock), the greater the effect one can expect. The provability of success isdirectly proportional to the quantity of samples/tests, hence it is desirableto build in basic mechanisms of scientific thinking at the earliest age possiblein a maximum wide audience and to stimulate their active work, and in certaintime intervals make evaluation and update of “programs” of thinking. “Comprehensionby an individual of new skills occurs only step-wise. Transition between two followingmental conditions takes place: “I’ll never understand how this can be done andI’ll never be able to do it” and “it is so obvious that I can’t understand whatneeds to be explained here”. Except for early childhood, the leaps of this kindoccur when masteringreading and mastering writing, mastering all standard extensions of setof numbers (fractional, negative, rational numbers, but not complex numbers), whenmastering the concept of infinitesimal valueand its consequences (the limits),differentiation, whenmastering integration, complex of specific abilities forming the phenomenon of information generating (in other words, inthe course of transition from studying science or art to purposeful/consciousprofessional creative work). We herebynote that at any of these stages, for the reasons not quite clear to us, the leapmay not occur. It means that certain ability has not turned into a stage of subconsciousprofessional application and cannot be used randomly by an individual for the solutionof problems he/she faces. At that, the required algorithm may be well known. Inother words, an individual knows letters. He/she knows how to write them. He/shecan form words from them. He/she can write a sentence. But! This work wouldrequire all his/her intellectual and mainly physical effort. For the reason that all resources of the brainare spent for the process of writing, errors are inevitable. It is obvious thatdespite formal literacy (the presence of knowledge of algorithm) an individualcannot be engaged in any activity for which the ability to write is one of thebasic or at least essential skills. Similar state of an individual is widelyknown in modern pedagogy and is called functional illiteracy. Similarly, onecan speak of functional inability to integrate (quite a frequent reason for theexclusion of the 1st and 2nd grade students from physical and mathematical departments).Curiously enough, at higher levels the leap does not occur so often, to theextent that it is even considered normal. The formula: “An excellent student,but failed to make proper choice of vocation. Well, he’s not a physicist byvirtue of thinking – well, that’s the way” (the leap allowing to mechanically employspecific style of thinking / physical in this case / did not occur). As toautomatic creativity, these concepts in general are considered disconnected,and individuals for whom the process of creation of new essentialities in scienceand culture is the ordinary professional work not demanding special strain ofeffort are named geniuses. However, a child sick with functional illiteracy wouldperceive his peer who has mastered writing to the extent of being able of doingit without looking into a writing-book, a genius, too! Thus, we arrive at theconclusion that creativity at the level of simple genius isbasicallyaccessible to everyone. Modern education translates to pupils’ knowledge (ofwhich, according to research, 90 % is being well and almost immediatelyforgotten) and very limited number of skills which would in a step-wise manner movethe individual to the following stage of intellectual or physical development. Oneshould know right well that endless school classes and home work, exhaustingsports trainings are no more than eternal “throwing of cube” in the hope that luckynumber will come out – in the hope of a “click”. And the “click” may occur atthe first dash. It may never occur as well. Accordingly, the philosophy “repetitionis the mother of learning” in effect adds up to a “trial-and-error method” whichhas been for a long time and fairly branded as such by TRIZists (the followersof Inventive Problems Solution Theory). As a matter of fact, the uneven natureof transition between “in”-and “out”- states at the moment of “click” suggeststhat it is a question of structural transformation of mentality. That is,“click” requires destruction of a structure (a pattern of thought, a picture ofthe world) and creation of another one in which a new skill is included “hardwarily”to be used automatically. Restrictions stimulate internal activity. It is proventhat creative task “Draw something” without setting pre-determined conditions withrestrictions is carried out less productively and less originally than the task:“Draw an unusual animal with a pencil during 30 minutes” (Sergey Pereslegin). Requiredpersonal qualities – traits of character /temperamental attributes/ may bedivided into four conventional groups: necessary, desirable, undesirable andinadmissible. Knowledge can be divided into two groups: means and ways of informationprocessing (including philosophy, logic, mathematics, etc.), the so-calledmeta-skills or meta-knowledge/ which are universal and applicable in any fieldof activity), and the subject (subjects) matter per se. From the view point ofmethodology all methods of scientific knowledge can be dividedinto five basicgroups: 1. Philosophical methods. These include dialectics and metaphysics. 2.General scientific (general logical) approaches and research methods — analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, abstraction,generalization, idealization, analogy, modeling, stochastic-statisticalmethods, systemic approach, etc. 3. Special-scientific methods: totalityof techniques, research methods used in one or anotherfield of knowledge. 4.Disciplinary methods, i.e. a set of methods applied in one or anotherdiscipline. 5.Methods of interdisciplinary research – a set of several synthetic, integrativemethods generated mainly at the cross-disciplinary junction of branches ofscience. Scientific cognition is characterized by two levels — empirical andtheoretical. Characteristic feature of empirical knowledge is the fact fixing activity. Theoretical cognition is substantial cognition /knowledge per se/ whichoccurs at the level of high order abstraction. There two ways to attempt tosolve a problem: search for thenecessary information or investigate it independently by means of observation, experiments andtheoreticalthinking.Observation and experiment are the most important methodsof researchin the process of scientificcognition. It is often said that theory is generalization of practice,experience or observations. Scientific generalizations often imply the use of anumber of speciallogicalmethods: 1) Universalization /globbing/ method which consists in that general points/aspects/and properties observed in the limited set of experiments hold true for all possiblecases; 2)Idealizationmethod consisting in thatconditions are specified at which processes described in laws occur intheir pure form, i.e. the way they cannot occurin reality; 3) Conceptualization methodconsisting in that concepts borrowed from other theoriesare entered into theformulation of laws, these concepts acquiring acceptably /accurate/ exact meaningand significance. Major methods of scientific cognition are: 1) Method of ascendingfrom abstract to concrete. The process of scientific cognition is alwaysconnected with transition from extremely simple concepts to more difficult concreteones. 2) Method of modeling and principle of system. It consists in that theobject inaccessible to directresearchisreplaced with its model. A model possesses similarity with the object in termsof its properties that are of interest for the researcher. 3) Experiment and observation.In the course of experiment the observer would isolate artificially a number ofcharacteristicsofthe investigatedsystemand examine their dependence on other parameters. It is necessary to take intoaccount that about 10 — 25 % of scientific information is proven outdated annuallyand in the near future this figure can reach 70%; according to other sources, thevolume of information doubles every 5 years. It means that the system of education/teachingand “non-stop” retraining applied in some cases will become a universal and mandatoryphenomenon, whereas the boundary between necessary and desirable knowledge willbecome more vague and conventional. In modern conditions active and purposefulstudying of someone’s future sphere (spheres) of activity should start 4-5years prior to entering the university. Considerable development will be seenin “preventive” (pre-emptive, anticipatory) education taking into accountprospects of development of science for 3-5-10 years from no on. Masterfulknowledge of methods of scientific-analytical and creative thinking is becomingthe same social standard and a sign of affiliation to elite social groups as,for example, the presence of higher education diploma. The lawof inverseproportionality of controllabilityand the ability to development says the more the system is controllable,the less it is capable of development. Controllable development may only be overtaking/catchingup/. Now, a few thoughts about errors in the course of training. Traditional approach tends to consider an error as the lack of learning,assiduity, attention, diligence, etc. As a result the one to blameis a trainee. Errorshould be perceived as a constructive element in the systemof heuristictraining. An educational institution is just the institute where the person shouldmake mistakes under the guidance of a teacher. An important element of cognitivesystem is professional terminology. The lack of knowledge of terms would notrelease anyone from the need to understand… Each term contains the concentrated mass ofnuances and details distinguishing the scientific vision of the matter inquestion from the ordinary, unscientific understanding… It should be mentionedthat the process of teaching/educating/ is a stress which has pluses andminuses, whereas the process of studying is a much smaller stress. One of themain tasks in terms of (self-) education may be the formation of active desire(internal requirement) to study and be engaged in (self-) education withindependent search of appropriate means and possibilities. Special considerationshould be given to teaching/training means and methods, i.e. what is comprehensibleto one group of trainees may be useless for others. Major differentiation wouldbe seen in age categories plus individual features. Training games are quite auniversal tool used for a wide range of subjects and development of practicalskills, since the game reflects the trainee’s behavior in reality. It is asystem that provides an immediate feedback. Instead of listening to a lecturethe trainee is given the individual lesson adapted for his/her needs. Game ismodeling of reality and method of influencing it by the trainee. Some minusesof game include conventionality and schematic nature of what is going on and thedevelopment of the trainee’s behavioral and cogitative stereotypes. Majorstrategic consequences of wide spread of scientific thinking skills may includesystemic (including quantitative — qualitative) changes in the system of science,education and industry, sharp increase of labor force mobility (both “white”and “blue collar”) and possible global social-economic and social-politicalchanges.

Part 1. Meta-skills:

Pass

preliminary test by means of Kettel’s 16-factorquestionnaire (form C), test your IQ (IntelligenceQuotient) using Aizenc’s test. Undergotesting for operative and long-term memory, attention distribution, noiseimmunity and will. Plan the development of these qualities in your character.

Methods of work with thetext

(W. Tuckman “EducationalPsychology. From Theory to Application”.

<st1:State><st1:place>Florida</st1:place></st1:State>.<st1:place><st1:PlaceType>State</st1:PlaceType> <st1:PlaceType>University</st1:PlaceType></st1:place>.1992):

1. Look through thetext before reading it in detail to determine what it is about.

2. Focus yourattention on the most significant places

(semantic nodes) in the text.

3. Keep shortrecord (summary/synopsis) of the most significant facts.

4. Keep close watchof understanding of what you read. If something appears not quite understood

, re-read theparagraph once again.

5. Check up andgeneralize (analyze) what you have read in respect to the purpose of yourreading.

6. Check up the correctnessof understanding of separate words and thoughts

in reference literature.

7. Quickly resumethe work (reading) if you have been interrupted.

Training of fast reading – “Fast Reader 32”Program. Download the program:

http://www.nodevice.ru/soft/windows/education/trenning/5072.html http://kornjakov.ru/index.htm,<a href=«www.freesoft.ru/?id=»670591">http://www.freesoft.ru/?id=670591 — for handheldcomputer.Plan2-week “result-oriented” trainings — your current maximum is + 50%.

Methods of critical

and creative thinking

Critical thinking:

1. Analyticalthinking (information analysis, selection of necessary facts, comparison, collationof facts, phenomena). Useful questions in this connection are “who?”, “what?”, “where?”,“when?”, “why?”, “where?”, “what for?”, “how?”, “how many/much?”, “what?”(“which?”)to be asked in the most unusual combinations, while trying to find (to suppose)all options of answers.

2. Associativethinking (determination of associations with the previously studied familiarfacts, phenomena, determination of associations with new qualities

of a subject, phenomenon,etc.).

3.

<st1:City><st1:place>Independence</st1:place></st1:City>of thinking (the absence of dependence on authorities and/or stereotypes,prejudices, etc.).

4. Logic thinking (theability to build the logic of provability of the decision made, the internallogic of a problem being solved, the logic of sequence of actions undertaken

for the solution ofthe problem, etc.).

5. Systemic thinking(the ability to consider the object, the problem in question within the integrity

of their ties/relationsand characteristics).

Creative thinking:

1. Ability of mentalexperimentation, spatial imagination.

2. Ability ofindependent transfer of knowledge for the decision of new problem, task, searchof new decisions.

3. Combinatoryabilities (the ability to combine the earlier known methods, ways of task/problemsolution in a new combined

, complex way – the morphological analysis).

4. Prognosticabilities (the ability to anticipate possible consequences of the decisionsmade, ability to establish

cause-and-effect relations).

5. Heuristic way ofthinking, intuitive inspiration, insight. The above stated abilities can besupplemented by specific abilities to work with information, for which purpose itis important to be able to select required (for specific goals) information fromvarious sources to analyze it, systematize and generalize the data obtained in accordancewith the cognitive task set forth, the ability to reveal problems in variousfields of knowledge, in the surrounding reality, to make grounded hypotheses fortheir solution. It is also necessary to be able to put experiments (not onlymental, but also natural), make well-reasoned conclusions, build the system ofproofs, to be able to process statistically the data obtained from test andexperimental checks, to be able to generate new ideas, possible ways of searchof decisions, registration of results, to be able to work in the collective, whilesolving cognitive, creative tasks in cooperation with others, at that playingdifferent social roles, as well as to be master of art

and culture of communication.

Research and search

methods of information processing:

1. Independentsearch and selection of information on specific problem.

2. Information analysisfor the purpose of selection of facts, data necessary for the description of theobject of study, its characteristics, qualities; for selection of facts conducive to the provability and/or refutation of the vision of the task/problemsolution; building of facts, data analyzed in the logical sequence of proofs,etc.

3. Definition,vision of problems that need examination and solution.

4. Making hypotheseswith definition of ways to check (solve) them.

5. Determination ofmethods, ways of solution of the investigated problem, stages of its solution byan individual or joint, group effort.

6. Registration ofresults of research or search activity.

7. Argumentation ofthe results achieved.

8. Projecting the occurrenceof new problems in the given area of knowledge

, practical activities.

Universal plan ofscientific management (SM)

1. Statement of anoverall goal (task) — minimum, optimum and maximum.

2. Setting of intermediategoals (tasks), their prioritization, time-frames of implementation.

3. Mechanisms (methods,schemes) of their achievement.

4. Requiredlogistical, informational

and financial support.

5. Personnel (includingstatement of problem before each employee following detailed instructionaladvice and determination of implementation time-frames).

6. Ways and means ofcontrol, possible failures and disturbances, methods, time-frames, personnel,materials, equipment, information

and finance to rectify the latter.

7. Task adjustmentin case of changes of situation, adaptation of the work performed (at allstages) to a new problem.

TRIZ – Inventive ProblemsSolution Theory (IPST)

Algorithm ofactivity:

1. A. Set a task. B. Imagine ideal result

(is there a problemat all?). C. What prevents from the achievement of a goal (find contradiction),why does it prevent from its achievement (reveal cause-and-effect relations). D.On what conditions prevention will not occur?

2. A. Required(possible) internal changes (the sizes: larger, smaller, longer, shorter, thicker,thinner, deeper, shallower, vertically, horizontally, sloping, in parallel, inledges, in layers/slices, transpose/rearrange, crosswise, convergence, to surround, to mix/stir, borders; thequantity: more, less, proportions, to divide, attach, add, remove; form: usual,unusual, rounded, straight, jags, unevenness, rough, equal, even/smooth, damageproof, delays, accidents, “foolproofing” and protection from larceny, to add;movement: to accelerate, slow down, stir up/revive/brighten up, stop,direction, deviation, pulling, pushing away, to block, lift, lower/pull down,rotate, fluctuate, arouse; condition: hot, cooler, firmer, softer, opened,closed, pre-assembled, disposable, combined, divided, hardening, liquid,gaseous, powder-like, wearability,

to grease, moist, dry, isolated, gelatinous, plasmic, elastic, resists,superposes/matches). B. Division of an object (and/or subject) into independentparts: a. Segregation of weak (includingpotentially weak) part (parts). b. Segregationof requiredandsufficient part (parts). c. Segregation of identical (including duplicating,similar) parts(includingin other systems). d. Divisioninto parts with different functions. C. External changes. D. Changes inthe adjacent objects. a. Establishment of links between the previously independentobjects performingonework (including a network). b. Removal of objects because of transferof their functionsto other objects. c. Increase in the number of objects at the expense of thereverse side of the area. E. Measurement of time: faster, more slowly, longer,eternal, single-step, cyclic, time-wise marked, update, variable. F. Ascertainmentof ties with other fields of knowledge (how is this contradiction solved there?what can be borrowed from there at all?). Prototypes in nature. G. Read thedictionaries for verbal associations (including non-standard). H. In case of failurerevert to the initial problem to expand its situation/formulation.

3. A. Introducenecessary changes in the object (work). B. Introduce changes in other

objects connectedwith the given one. C. Introduce changes in methods and expand the sphere ofuse of the object. D. Ask questions “how can we achieve the same result withoutusing this product (using it partially) or without doing this work (doing it partially)?”,“how can we make the product (work) easier, more durable, safer, cheaper, in a moreaccelerated manner, pleasant, useful, universal, convenient, “friendly”, more ergonomic,harmless, pure, reliable, effective, attractive and bright, portable, valuable, statusranking, etc. E. Conduct preliminary tests, finish off, if necessary. Develop IGM(income generation mechanism). F. Check the applicability of the solution(s) foundin respect of other problems. G. Take out a patent for the idea. See also: www.triz-journal.com, http://www.altshuller.ru/

Concepts, substance andlaws of dialectics

1) The world (the being, reality) existsobjectively, i.e. irrespective of the will and conscience of a human being. 2) Theworld has not been created by anybody and cannot be destroyed by anybody. Itexists and develops in accordance with natural laws. There are no supernaturalforces in it. 3) The world is unique and there are no “extra-mundane” spheresand phenomena in it (standing “above the world” or “beyond the world”) that areabsolutely abjoint from each other. Diverse objects and the phenomena of thereality represent various kinds of moving matter and energy. 4) The world iscoherent and is in eternal, continuous movement, development. Objects of the realityinteract with each other, influence upon each other. In the process of developmentqualitative changes in objects, including natural transition

from the lowest forms to the higher, takeplace. 5) Natural development of a matter through a number of natural steps(the inorganic/inanimate nature/abiocoen/ – life – society) has led to theorigin of human being, intellect, conscience. The crucial role in the segregationof human being from animality and the formation of its conscience was played bylabor, its social nature, transition of the human being’s animal ancestors to regularproductionand application of instrumentsof labor. 6) Society being the higher step of development of substance includesall lowest forms and levels (mechanical, physical, chemical, biological) on thebasis of which it has arisen, but is not reduced to them only. It exists anddevelops on the basis of social laws which qualitatively differ from the lawsof the lowest forms. The paramount law of social development is the determinantrole of production in the life of the society. Mode of production of materiallife conditions social, political and spiritual processes of life in general.7) The world is knowable. Human knowledge is unlimited by nature, but is limitedhistorically at each stage of its development and for each separate individual.The criterion for the verity of thinking and cognition is public practice. Inrecent years the need arose for the formation of higher form of dialectic-materialisticoutlook — “spiritual materialism”. Spiritual materialism extends the line ofclassical materialism in terms of recognition of objective character of existence,its cognoscibility, natural evolution of substance from the lowest to thehigher forms, exclusion of notions of supernatural from scientific beliefs/notions,etc. At the same time, spiritual materialism overcomes absolutization ofsuperiority of material over the spiritual, contraposition and discontinuity ofthese fundamentals inherent in the former forms of materialism, and directstowards the revelation of their unity, complex interrelation, interpenetration,definite fixation of relations in which the material and spiritual determine eachother in the process of functioning and development of objects. Threemain laws of dialectics are: the lawof transition from quantity to quality,the law of unityand conflict of oppositesand the lawofnegation of negation. There is more to it than these three major laws in dialectics. Abscque hoc, there are anumber of other dialectic lawsconcretizing and supplementing organic laws of dialectics expressed incategories “substance and phenomenon”, “content and form”, “contingency andnecessity”, “cause and effect”, “possibility and reality”, “individual, special andgeneral”, the dialectic triad: thesis, antithesis andsynthesis. Categories and laws ofdialectics exist within a certain system in which the substance/essence ofdialectics properis expressed.

Analysis of the decision-makingmethods without use of numerical values of probability

(exemplificative of the investmentprojects).

In practicesituations are often found when it is difficult enough to estimate the value ofprobability of an event. In such cases methods are often times applied which donot involve using numerical

values of probabilities: maximax– maximization of the maximumresult of the project; maximin – maximization of the minimum resultof the project; minimax –minimization of maximum losses; compromise – Gurvitz’scriterion: weighing of minimum andmaximum results of the project. For decision-making on realization ofinvestment projects a matrix is built. Matrix columns correspond to the possiblestates of nature, i.e. situations which are beyond of control of the head of anenterprise. Lines of the matrix correspond to possible alternatives of realizationof the investment project – strategies which may be chosen by the director. Thematrix cells specify the results of each strategy for each state of nature. Example:The enterprise analyzes the investment civil-engineering design of a line forthe production of new kind of product. There are two possibilities: the constructionof a high power capacity line or to construct low power line. Net present valueof the project depends on the demand for production, whereas the exact volumeof demand is unknown, however, it is known that there are three basicpossibilities: absence of demand, average demand and great demand. The matrix cells(see table 1) show net present value of the project at a certain state of nature,provided that the enterprise will choose the appropriate strategy. The lastline shows what strategy is optimumin each state of nature. The maximax decision would be to construct a highpower capacity line: the maximum net present value will thus be 300 whichcorrespond to the great demand situation. The maximum criterion reflects theposition of the enterprise director – the optimist ignoring possible losses. Themaximin decision, i.e. to construct a low power line: the minimum result ofthis strategy is the loss of 100 (which is better than possible loss of 200 incase of construction of a high power capacity line). The maximin criterionreflects the position of the director who is in no way disposed towards takingrisk and is notable for his/her extreme pessimism. This criterion is quite usefulin situations where risk is especially high (for example when the existence of anenterprise depends on the results of the investment project). Threat is determinedby two components: possibilitiesand intention of the contestant.

Table 1. Example ofconstruction of the matrix of strategy and states of nature for the investmentproject.

Strategy

State of nature: absence of demand

State of nature: medium demand

State of nature: great demand

Construct a low power line

100

150

Construct a high power capacity line

200

300

Optimum strategy for the given state of nature

Construct a low power line

Construct a high power capacity line

Construct a high power capacity line

To apply theminimax criterion let us construct “a matrix of regrets” (see table 2). Thecells of this matrix show the extent/value of “regret”, i.e the difference between actual and the bestresults which could have been achieved by the enterprise at the given state ofnature. “Regret” shows what is being lost by the enterprise as a result of

making wrongdecision. The minimax decision corresponds to the strategy, whereby the maximumregret is minimal. In our case of low power line maximum regret makes 150 (ingreat demand situation) and for a high power capacity line – 100 (in theabsence of demand). As 100 <150, the minimax decision would be to construct ahigh power capacity line. The minimax criterion is oriented not so much towardsactual as possible damages or loss of profit.

Table 2.

Example of structureof the “matrix of regrets” for minimax criterion

Strategy

State of nature: absence of demand

State of nature: medium demand

State of nature: great demand

Construct a low power line

(-100) – (-100

) =0

200 – 150=50

300 – 150=150

Construct a high

power capacity line

(-100) – (-200

200 – 200=0

300 – 300=0

Optimum strategy for the given state of nature

Construct a low power line

Construct a high power capacity line

Gurvitz’s criterionconsists in that minimum and maximum results of each strategy are assigned “weight”.Evaluation of result of each strategy equals to the sum of maximum and minimumresults multiplied by corresponding weight.

Let’s assume thatthe weight of the minimum result is equal to 0.5, the weight of the maximum resultequals to 0.5 as well (it is the probabilistic characteristic; in this case probabilityof onset of any option of events = 50 %, as far as we have 2 options: 50 % +50 % = 100 %; if there will be 3 options, then the ratio can be 33,33 (%) fo

еще рефераты

Еще работы по менеджменту (теория управления и организации)

Реферат по менеджменту (теория управления и организации)

Сравнительный менеджмент (Бирмингенского филиала компании "Апджон")

29 Августа 2013

Реферат по менеджменту (теория управления и организации)

Менеджмент (шпаргалки)

29 Августа 2013

Реферат по менеджменту (теория управления и организации)

Финансовый менеджмент (билеты)

29 Августа 2013

Реферат по менеджменту (теория управления и организации)

Венчурное инвестирование в России: проблемы развития

29 Августа 2013