Реферат: Russia and the international economy

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Russian Economic Academy “Plekhanov”

Faculty: IBS

Group: 845

Student’s name: Suprun Diana

MOSCOW 1998 <img src="/cache/referats/9881/image003.gif" " v:shapes="_x0000_s1026 _x0000_s1027">

OUTLIINE

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-fareast-font-family:Arial;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">1.<span Times New Roman"">   

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Russia withinthe International Trade System ……………………………3

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Regulation ofExternal Economic Activities………………………………..4

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">3.   Foreign Trade Pattern……………………………………………………….6

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1.<span Times New Roman"">   

Russia and theinternational trade system

According to a medium-term forecastfor developments in the area of the international economy, business revival iscumulating momentum after the recession it experienced in early 1990s. It had arelevant effect on the world trade. In 1994 the average international tradeturnover showed a 9.5 percent growth being a record figure in the last 20 yearsand by 3 times exceeding the increase in the international production. In 1995the World Trade Organization estimated 8 percent increase in trade turnover ascompared with a 3 percent growth in the world production. World Bank expertsthink that in the next 10 years an average increase in foreign trade will make6 percent annually.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">An economicrun-up in most industrialized countries was followed by a growing demand formany products and a consecutive price hike on international markets.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Oil marketsshowed a balance of demand and supply in 1995. Average prices of Dubai oil wereat $ 123 per metric ton, by 14.9 percent exceeding 1994 averages. Owning to smallincrease in the world oil consumption and practically unchanged supplysituation no perceptible change of prices is expected.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">A trend ofnatural gas prices on markets in Western Europe was practically the same as theoil price dynamics. In 1995 average prices were by 13.4 percent higher ascompared with 1994.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Prices ofnonferrous metals have risen dramatically. In 1995 average world prices were asfollows: aluminum — $ 1806 per metric ton (20.3 percent rise in comparisonwith 1994), copper — $ 2933 (higher by 23.3 percent), nickel — $ 8063 (19.3percent growth).

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">As a result ofthe 1994-95 record price surge in the whole period after the World War IIcellulose joined the leaders with a 50 percent price hike (up to more than $1000 per metric ton). According to a middle-range outlook price stabilizationaccompanied by a slight price rise is expected.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">As marketrelations develop, process of internal price structure formation continues inRussia and it gradually closes to the price system existing on world markets.In 1995 contract prices grew perceptibly, however, prices of a majority ofenergy resources lagged behind those on the world trade markets in terms ofrates of increase. The outcome was a worsening balance between contract andworld prices.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">An importantrole in development of the international trade is played by the GATT/WTO whichfor 48 years tried to work out the fundamentals of a future world trade basingon principles of observance of the Agreement's general regulations aimed tokeep up non-discrimination of individual states and to a gradual elimination ofbarriers slowing down mutual exchange of commodities. Since 1950 the worldtrade turnover has increased by 13 times and eight rounds of multilateral tradenegotiations held under the GATT's auspices have led to a ten-fold cut ofaverage customs duties. At present it makes a bit less than 4 percent.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Russia'saccession to the WTO will make it possible to tap all measures existing withinthe framework of this organization in order to protect Russia's economicinterests. At present direct or concealed discrimination of Russian producersand traders on markets of certain countries is among factors affecting Russianexports dynamics. Thus, only the ban on Russian uranium exports to the USA hasled to losses for Russia, as estimated by some experts, at $170 million a year.The total number of anti-dumping procedures imposed upon Russia has reached 41.More than a half of them (22) are qualified as openly discriminatory cases orunjustified claims by the Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations.

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In the summerof 1995 the first round of negotiations between the Russian delegation and the WTO's Working Group on Russia took place in Geneva. Membersof the Working Group apprised information on foreign trade regulations statedin the Russian Memorandum as exhaustive enough.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">An outcome ofthe second round taking place from December 4 to 7 of 1995 was the completionof discussion of the Russian Memorandum on the foreign trade regime as concernstrade in goods. Besides, the first discussion on special annexes to theMemorandum embracing protection of intellectual property rights, trade inservices and trade-related investment measures was held. At the same time, theWTO member countries have reserved the right to revert to a detailed discussionon three key issues: if state-owned trade organizations exist in Russia (Moscowdenies this); import licensing; subsidizing of external operations. However,even now they agree in principle that the Russian legislation is in accordancewith the WTO's rules and norms in these areas of theforeign trade regulation.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">There are noapparent opponents to Russia's accession to the WTO, since the world trade,especially in the area of trade in raw materials, cannot be regulated withoutparticipation of Russia. However, the admission of Russia may be surrounded bya number of additional obligations not directly following from the WTOrequirements. Bilateral consultations held in Geneva have shown that Russiawill face some complications in the course of tariff negotiations.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">On the whole,the outcome of the second round of Geneva talks has been successful for Russia.

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">2. Regulation of External Economic Activities

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In 1995 certainchanges were introduced to the mechanism of the state regulation of the foreigntrade. In the first half of 1995 the state regulation of oil exports wassubstantially amended: quotas and licenses in oil exports were abolishedalongside with preferences (with exclusion of supply pursuant tointergovernmental agreements) while export duties on oil and oil products weresignificantly reduced; certain oil products were excluded from the list ofstrategically important commodities. Producers' access to channels allowingtransportation of oil to other countries (pipelines and terminals in sea ports)became a natural restraint on exports.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The list ofstrategically important raw commodities was shortened and the institution ofspecial exporters was abolished altogether. The system of contracts'registration became the main instrument of control over exports. Individualpreferences granted to participants of external economic activities wereabolished, excluding those issued in accordance with the laws of the RussianFederation.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The law«On State Regulation of Foreign Trade» adopted in July came intoforce in October. The law stipulated what authority in this area shall be withthe President, the Government and the Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations.The exclusiveness of the MFER's position wasemphasized by the fact that only it was vested with the right to license importand export transactions subject to quantitative restrictions or to approvalprocedures.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">As pursuant tothe law, the Russian Government shall submit a program of foreign tradedevelopment together with a draft of the Federal budget for the Parliament'sapproval. Alongside with other provisions this program shall embrace customstariff rates planned for the year in question as well as the band of theirpossible fluctuation, thus making the foreign trade more predictable. TheGovernment has the right to introduce export and import quantitativerestrictions on national security grounds, to comply with internationalagreements or to protect the domestic market, however, these measures shall beannounced not less than 3 months prior to their actual introduction. The lawenvisages a possibility to introduce state monopoly for trade in certainproducts. In this case a special procedure of licensing import and exportoperations exclusively to state-owned enterprises shall be applied.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">As the abovementioned law was effectuated, the Commission of the RF Government on SafeguardMeasures in Foreign Trade became fully legitimate and in December it received«Procedures of Investigation Prior to Application of Safeguard Measures»approved by the MFER (Russ.abbr. MVES). A possibilityto apply safeguard measures against competitive imported products complies withusual practices applicable in the world trade. In this area Russia is late inworking out and application of such measures, especially taking into accountthat Russian exports are often and in most cases unjustifiably subject todiscrimination on foreign markets. So, the RF import regime loses itsexceptional liberalism which has been characteristic of it until recently.

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Tariffregulation

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">. From September through December export duties levelswere gradually lowered until their complete abolition since January 1, 1996,with an exception of a small group of goods including oil, natural gas and someother raw commodities.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In June and inOctober, 1996 import duty rates were changed. On the whole, changes were madein direction of an increase in tariffs. Earlier goods taxable at 1 percent haveconstituted a rather significant part of the list, at present this rate is onlyapplicable to certain goods within Group 10 of the External Economic Activitycommodity nomenclature (grain) and 1701 (cane sugar, beet firm sugar andsucrose). A 10 percent tariff is now applied to medicines which earlier havebeen exempt from duties while fish and fish products are subject to a doublerise of duties (from 5 to 10 percent) and duties on vegetables were tripled(from 5 to 15 percent). For foodstuffs earlier exempted from duties new tariffsmade 5 percent on bananas and citrus fruits, 10 percent on tee and coffee, 15percent on fresh cucumbers, however, rates of import duties in Russia stillremain considerably lower than in the EU countries (16 percent against 21percent). There were effectuated provisions stipulating a 30 percent duty on goodssuch as luxuries, tobacco products, alcoholic beverages and weapons.

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Tax regulation

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">. As before,close attention was paid to products subject to excise taxation. In July and inDecember, 1996 a price difference between excise stamps and special stamps designatedfor imported tobacco and alcohol products were adjusted. There were createdequal conditions for importers of these products both from countries within andoutside of the former Soviet Union (ECU 0.1 per unit of an alcohol beverage andECU 0.01 per unit of a tobacco product). In December the rate of excise tax ontobacco products was increased from ECU 1.2 to ECU 2 per 1000 pieces.

In June the list of productssubject to a preferential 10 percent value added tax was shortened; it wasagain examined in detail in November and some new products were added to it. InDecember works and services, both produced domestically and purchased, beingexported to countries outside the CIS alongside with services concerning thetransit of foreign cargo through Russian territory were exempted from the valueadded tax.

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Preferences inExternal Economic Activities

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">. In October, 1996 the Governmentabolished previously applicable preferential taxation of alcoholic beveragesimported from abroad by certain legal entities which were exempt from customsduties (for instance, the National Fund of Sports and the All-Russian Societyof Invalids). Since December, pursuant to the Presidential Decree «OnCustoms Preferences» of November 30, 1995, it is inadmissible for Federalagencies to adopt decisions which would provide prolongation of preferences interms of customs duty exempts and receipts of additional compensations.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In August, 1996the control mechanism over incoming export proceeds denominated in foreignexchange was adjusted. All proceeds in foreign currencies shall be entered intoaccounts with authorized banks--that became a requirement of the customsregime. Customs service now enjoys the right to control all capital flows andapply relevant sanctions if necessary.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In September,1996 the control over exports and imports of military-purposed products, worksand services, subject to licensing, was tightened.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In December theset of instruments of the state control mechanism over imports wassupplemented. The system of foreign exchange control over imports introduced onJanuary 1, 1996, is basing on the same principles as the export controlexisting since 1994 and envisages the same chain of relations: an importer--anauthorized bank--customs. The key document fundamental for the whole controlsystem is a registration certificate for import transactions.

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">3. Foreign Trade Pattern

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<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In 1995 Russianforeign trade was influenced by differently directed factors. A favorable stateof the world market and the governmental policy of stimulating exports viaregular lowering of export duties provided for a further increase in volumes oftrade with countries outside the former Soviet Union and a stable activebalance of the foreign trade.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">EstimatingRussian foreign trade the following adverse factors shall be taken intoaccount: a decline in production, small amounts of investment, rather highinflation rates, insufficient level of state assistance for development of thecountry's export potential, poor competitiveness of many Russian-mademanufactured products, especially of machines and equipment, lack of positiveshifts in development of Russia's external relations with countries of theformer CMEA, huge external debt, discriminatory barriers banning a number ofRussian-made products from external markets. In connection with accession ofFinland, Sweden and Austria to the EU Russia automatically became subject toanti-dumping and quantitative restrictions concerning trade with thesecountries in steel, textiles, mineral fertilizers, uranium.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Introduction ofthe «ruble corridor (fluctuation band)» alongside with a relativelyhigh internal price dynamics caused deterioration of export transactions'effectiveness. However, due to liberalization of energy resources exports, theexport sector reacted to the introduction of the «corridor» slowerand not so sharply as critics of a fixed exchange rate had believed. At thesame time, stabilization of ruble exchange rate created a sufficientlyfavorable transaction climate for importers allowing them to compensate a partof the loss inflicted by an increase in import tariffs.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Goskomstat

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> reports thatthe Russian foreign trade turnover, unorganized trade including, made $ 135.7billion in 1995, or by 16 percent more in comparison with 1994 figures. Exportswere at $ 77.8 billion (a 18 percent increase) and imports at $ 57.9 billion(by 15 percent more).

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The results ofexternal economic activities in 1992 through 1995 are indicative of the factthat Russia re-oriented its trade towards industrialized countries and that theshare of countries outside the former Soviet Union in the total foreign tradeturnover has grown. In 1995 countries outside the former USSR accounted for 78percent of it. In 1992 through 1995 exports to these countries increased at arecord rate in the last 20 years with exports showing a 25 percent growth ($64.3 billion) and imports (together with unorganized trade) increasing by 12percent ($ 41.6 billion).

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In 1995 growthrates slowed down considerably. Thus, while in the first quarter exports grewby 45 percent as compared with the same period in the last year, in the secondquarter it made only 29 percent and showed a modest 15 percent increase in thethird quarter. Undoubtedly, export growth rates were affected by the «currencycorridor (fluctuation band)» introduced in the second half of the year.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">As before, thebulk of Russian exports consists of raw materials. Fuel and energy resourcesaccount for the biggest share (41 percent) of exports, while theFuel-and-Energy Complex production (oil, natural gas, oil products) becomesmore and more oriented towards external markets.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In 1995 adecline in export growth rates in real terms was observed as natural gasexports increased by 11 percent (14 percent in 1994), oil products grew by 8percent (11 percent), oil--by only 1 percent (11 percent).

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Growth ofexports as calculated in value terms was primarily caused by a favorablesituation on the world market. Average contract oil prices of exports in thecountries outside the former Soviet Union increased by about 7 percent ascompared with 1994 figures, natural gas exports grew by 10 percent while oilproducts showed a 6.6 percent increase.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Metal exportsaccounted for a 20 percent share in the Russian exports. Nickel and ferrousmetals exports grew most rapidly at 37 and 26 percent accordingly. Averageexport prices of key metals surged, thus, price of nickel increased by 33.1percent, of aluminum--by 36.9 percent, of copper--by 24.2 percent, of ferrousalloys--by 24.7 percent, of pig iron--by 14.6 percent. The pattern of metalexports has somewhat changed. Customs statistics reveal a growing number ofcontracts on export of finished metal articles, however, their share in thetotal export volumes is still insignificant. These articles are being madeaccording to designs of foreign companies (mostly in aircraft and engineeringindustries) under a binding condition that they shall be manufactured inaccordance with the West European standards and certified by a foreign firm. Itis too early to suggest the end of an age of raw exports conducted in theirmost primitive form, however, the Russian metal industry is given anopportunity to participate in the international division of labor on equalbasis and to reach a qualitatively new level of production.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The share ofchemicals made 9.6 percent. Mineral fertilizers still remain a key export itemin the industry. Export volumes of mineral fertilizers increased by 14 percentin comparison with 1994 figures. Simultaneously, average contract prices alsogrew (by 24 percent).

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Export patternswithin the forestry and paper industry tended to be oriented towards rawmaterials in recent years affecting the structure of currency proceedsaccordingly. A third of foreign exchange proceeds was derived from raw timber(logs) exports while semi-finished timber (lumber) accounted for 25 percent ofproceeds and processing-intensive products brought only 32 percent.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">A considerableincrease in physical volumes of exports in the countries outside the formerSoviet Union as compared with the previous year figures was reported for logs(37 percent) and cellulose (38 percent). At the same time, average exportprices of logs grew by 2.8 percent and of cellulose — by 96.6 percent.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">One of the waysto increase export revenues is an expansion of sales markets for Russian-madeweapons and military equipment. Export volumes of military production made $2.6 billion in 1995, that being by 1.7 times more than in 1994.

The share of machines and equipmentin Russian exports to countries outside the former Soviet Union contracted to3.8 percent as compared with 5.3 percent in 1994. Development of newcompetitive and technologically-intensive products relevant to modern level ofrequirements on external markets demands large investment and istime-consuming.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Table 5.2Volumes of Russian Foreign Trade with Countries Outside Former Soviet Union inValue Terms (without unorganized trade, US$ billions)

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Source:Ministry of Economy of RF.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">1992

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">1993

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">1994

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">1995

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">$ billion

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In % to previous year

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">$ billion

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In % to previous year

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">$ billion

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In % to previous year

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">$ billion

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In % to previous year

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Foreign trade turnover

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">79.4

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">83.2

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">71.1

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">89.5

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">79.8

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">112.2

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">97.6

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">122.3

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Exports

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">42.4

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">83.3

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">44.3

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">104.5

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">51.5

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">116.1

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">64.3

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">125.1

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Imports

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">37.0

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">83.1

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">26.8

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">72.4

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">28.3

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">105.7

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">33.3

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">117.4

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Balance

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">5.4

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">87.1

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">17.5

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">324.0

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">23.2

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">132.0

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">31.0

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">133.0

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">An increase ininternal productional costs, first of all at theexpense of energy and raw materials, more expensive loans, growing transportexpenses, aging production assets in extractive and processing branches,deteriorating productional situation contributed todiminishing effectiveness of export transactions. At present only export ofnatural gas, oil, nickel, timber and lumber are profitable. Export of oilproducts, ferrous and nonferrous metals, chemicals begins to bring losses.However, due to worsening financial situation of Russian enterprises andgrowing payment arrears exporters prefer to have hard currencies even atdeclining or altogether negative profitability of exports.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The mostdynamic and growing market of the Russian Federation are industrialized Westerncountries. The largest share of Russian exports goes to Germany (9.1 percent).The USA account for 6.9 percent, Switzerland--for 5.8 percent, Italy--for 5.6percent, Japan--for 5.5 percent, Netherlands — for 4.9 percent, Great Britain-- for 4.7 percent and Finland--for 4 percent of Russian exports.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The pattern ofRussian imports has not been changed considerably. As before, machines andequipment were ranked first and accounted for a 38 percent share of the totalimports which grew by 23 percent in comparison with 1994. It was caused by anecessity to provide key branches of the national economy with moderntechnologies and equipment.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">A decline inagriculture followed by deteriorating provision of the populace withdomestic-made foodstuffs has led to an expansion of food imports. Such measuresas a rise of import duty rates, introduction of excises and of value added tax,abolition of preferences concerning import tariffs, which have been takenlately, contributed to an increase in internal prices of imported goods thuscreating prerequisites to restrain imports. However, stabilization of rublesomewhat compensated for the negative impact of growing import duties andexcises and helped to increase imports.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In 1995 importsgrew considerably, especially of such products as sunflower oil (a 232 percentincrease), poultry (by 70 percent more), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages(a 67 percent increase), butter (an increase by 65 percent), frozen meat (by 43percent more).

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In the nearestfuture dynamics and pattern of the country's foreign trade will be first of alldetermined by the internal economic situation, i.e. whether it shows signs ofbusiness revival or not, by changes in the structure of supply and solventdemand on the domestic market, as well as by exchange rate policies. Theregulatory mechanism of the external economic activities may also change due topolitical factors.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In 1996 exportsgrew somewhat slower (at about 1--3 percent rates). It was expected that exportof major fuel and energy resources would remain at the same level while suchproducts as metals, chemicals, timber, pulp and paper would be exported inincreasing quantities.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Oil and naturalgas exports remained profitable because estimated rates of internal pricegrowth prevailed.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Imports patternchanged impacted by a growth of the share of technological equipment andmanufactured consumer goods. Growing imports of key foodstuffs and non-foodconsumer goods led to application of certain measures aimed to tighten protectionist regime in order to safeguard domesticindustries in 1996 (import quotas introduced).

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In 1995 Russianforeign trade turnover with the CIS countries made $ 29.8 billion, increasingby 5 percent in comparison with 1994 figures, it is due, first of all, to aprice rise concerning fuel and energy products (14 — 28 percent on theaverage). Exports made $ 13.5 billion, or by 9 percent less than in 1994 whileimports reached $ 16.3 billion (a 21 percent increase). The share of the CIScountries in the Russian foreign trade turnover diminished by 2 percent ascompared with the previous year figures and made 22 percent.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">For the firsttime in the years of the CIS existence Russia had a negative trade balance withthese countries ($ -2.8 billion) while in 1994 it had a trade surplus of $ 1.2billion. Starting from the end of the last year imports from the CIS grew at afast rate while exports gradually shrank.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The main reasondetermining the import surplus is an unbalanced, owning to a crisis situationexisting in national economies, foreign trade within the CIS framework, thatrendering difficulties in settlement of the CIS countries debts, especiallythose due for fuel and energy resources supply. According to current data,these debts as of January 1, 1996, made Rb 15.6trillion, or two times more than in 1995. It is hardly justified to attributeRussian shrinking exports to neighboring countries to introduction of the«currency corridor (fluctuation band)» as their fall began as earlyas April while to the contrary in October some increase in export operationswas observed. On the other hand, introduction of the «currency corridor(fluctuation band)» and stabilization of ruble exchange rates enhanced effectivenessof operations of exporters from countries within the former Soviet Union on theRussian market.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">As before, thefuel and energy products accounted for the bulk of exports to the CIS membercountries (about 50 percent). Total volumes of oil exports diminished by 22percent as compared with the previous year while export of oil products shrankeven more considerably — by 60 percent, the fact caused not only by paymentarrears in reciprocal transactions, but by growing export prices of Russian oilwhich increased by 28.3 percent in comparison with the last year figures andreached $ 74.9 per metric ton (that making roughly 70 percent of prices underexport contracts with countries outside the former Soviet Union). However, nowsome CIS countries try to reduce their dependence on Russian energy supply. Forinstance, Moldavia has already signed an oil import agreement with Iran whileUkraine relies upon cooperation with countries of the Persian Gulf. At the sametime, Russian oil exports to Byelorussia grewconsiderably as a result of creation of the common customs area, that allowing Byelorussian oil processing enterprises to purchase oil atprices quoted on the Russian domestic market.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The pattern ofRussian exports somewhat changed in 1995 as compared with 1994, for instancecoal exports grew by 32 percent, iron ore exports increased twofold and exportof ferrous metals also showed signs of growth.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">As concernsimport operations, the role of the CIS member countries remains an importantone in terms of providing Russia with foodstuffs. Thus, the share of whitesugar imports from these countries reached 80 percent while their volumesincreased by more than two times since the last year. There was also observedan increase in imports of grain, meat, butter. At the same time, a trend topurchase fewer consumer goods in countries within the former Soviet Union inconnection to availability of cheaper similar products of quality made in theWest manifests itself.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The CustomsUnion of Russia, Byelorussia and Kazakhstanwhich was established in 1995 and faces a number of objective difficulties andcontradictions caused in the first turn by differences in levels of developmentand directions of reforms. The Intergovernmental Economic Committee which atlast started to perform its functions in 1995 still lacks supranationalauthority; unsettled problems of mutual payment arrears prevent activities ofthe Payment Union.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Prospects offoreign trade developments within the CIS cannot be estimated in simple terms.The Commonwealth's objective orientation towards integration faces gravepolitical and economic problems. It is probable that in the beginning of nextyear a negative trade balance with neighboring countries will remain, inparticular due to further decline in export of fuel and energy products.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">On the whole,the Commonwealth's future, undoubtedly, will depend on the political situationin Russia. However, the experience of the last few years demonstrates thatRussia's partners within the CIS prefer to act according to their economicinterests rather than to political rhetorics. The CISmember countries are interested in an economic cooperation with Russia exactlybecause it has progressed relatively further on the way of reforms. That is whyslackening pace of the reform or a complete stop of the transformation maydamage trends towards integration to such extent that any politicaldeclarations on closer unity and cooperation will be overweighed.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

Balance of Payments

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The balance ofpayments reflecting Russian residents' activities in the external sectorreveals the following key facts.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In 1995, thestrengthening ruble did not hold back the growth of trade surplus: exportsincreased at a greater rate than imports.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">As duringprevious periods import of services exceeded their exports, that beingprimarily attributed to developing tourism to countries outside the formerSoviet Union. Thus, import of tourist services exceeded imports by $ 5366million. As a result, current accounts balance was by 43 percent less than thebalance of foreign trade. Operations of governmental agencies prevailed in thecapital account. External debt grew due both to new borrowing and defermentsand arrears in debt servicing.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Non-statesector operations were mostly represented by commercial loans, both in terms ofmerchandise exports with deferred payments and advance payments. As concernsdirect and portfolio investment, they remained at an insignificant level.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Growingreliance of residents on ruble was shown by somewhat decreasing amounts of cashforeign exchange.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">As a rule,commercial structures accounted for loans granted to non-residents. The mainform of such loans was export loans of enterprises.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Non-repatriationof export proceeds became an important factor destabilizing the financialsphere. In January through September of 1995 it reached $ 5.6 billion, as theState Customs Committee (GTK) reports. This figure is comparable to all foreignloans drawn by the state in the same period.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The amount ofpayments due to disburse the official external debt exerted more pressure onthe Federal budget as compared with the same period of the last year. While in9 months of 1994 96 percent of actual payments to disburse the officialexternal debt were financed at the expense of external sources and only $ 134million were received from internal sources, in 9 months of 1995 the figuresmade 89.5 percent and $ 590 million accordingly.

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